The latest projection by the U.S. Energy Information Agency forecasts that by 2035, almost half of the cars sold in the United States will be alternative-fuel vehicles. That includes: diesel, flex-fuel, hybrid, plug-in hybrid electric, pure electric, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, and fuel-cell vehicles. Most of those sales will be hybrids, according to the forecast. In 2008, alternative-fuel vehicles constituted only 13 percent of overall sales, led by conventional (non-plug-in) hybrids.
Today, automakers are looking to introduce the next wave of alternative-fuel cars, required by the upcoming CAFE standards that will raise average fuel economy requirements to 35.5 mph by 2016. With these improvements in fuel economy, gasoline cars will continue to make up 51 percent of the car market in 2035, but consumers looking to reduce their environmental footprint will have more choices.
Currently, the Prius is the most popular hybrid and no other has come close to beating it in sales, but recent new offerings such as the Ford Fusion hybrid are strong alternatives. (Currently, hybrids comprise 2.7 percent of vehicle sales.) Besides Ford, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, and Toyota, more and more automakers are looking to join in the hybrid market. Hyundai will unveil a hybrid version of the redesigned Sonata at the upcoming New York Auto Show and Porsche will display their Cayenne hybrid. Subaru showed its Hybrid Tourer Concept in Los Angeles last fall, and Volkswagen displayed its New Compact Coupe hybrid earlier in the year in Detroit.
Besides hybrids, electric vehicles are gaining momentum. The Nissan Leaf is set to go on sale in December. The Chevrolet Volt extended-range electric vehicle is also scheduled to arrive at dealerships at the same time. A Chinese-built small sedan, marketed by California start-up Coda may roll out at the same time, as well. Another Chinese automaker, BYD, made bold promises to launch its E6 electric multi-purpose vehicle this calendar year, starting out West. The Mitsubishi iMiev is slated to go on sale sometime in 2011.
While the EIA projections to 2035 look possible, they are uncertain. A number of factors such as innovations in technology, government emissions policies, incentives to consumers to adopt alternative fuels, gas prices, and consumer preferences will determine the future mix of vehicle sales.
—Liza Barth
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