It’s only a matter of time, experts say, until the World Health Organization upgrades the swine (H1N1) flu outbreak to the highest level, a stage-6, worldwide pandemic. What does that mean for you?
Not much right now beyond taking the usual precautions, but health organizations caution that you should be prepared in case the outbreak gets worse. The WHO criteria for upgrading the swine flu to stage-6, relies primarily on prevalence (how easily the flu is transmitted between people), rather than severity (how dangerous it is). The U.S. is already treating the disease as a public health emergency.
When the WHO determines that the disease has displayed sustained transmission in another region in addition to North America, it will declare the pandemic alert. There are already cases in over 20 countries around the world, and based on flu patterns in North America, it’s likely it will become established in another region, triggering the stage-6 level pandemic alert.
But that alert does not mean we’re necessarily in for another 1918 flu pandemic, which caused an estimated 40-50 million deaths worldwide. Given the medical advances since then, the WHO estimates that a similar flu pandemic today would cause 2 to 7.4 million deaths worldwide. And so far, swine flu appears to be milder than its 1918 predecessor.
As the outbreak has evolved experts from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention say the virus appears to lack the genetic traits that have made previous flu pandemics so deadly. As a result, the preponderance of cases in the U.S. have resulted in mild flu, similar to that of seasonal flu, which claims about 36,000 lives, and hospitalizes about 200,000, Americans each year.
Given the nature of flu viruses, which can mutate and become more dangerous very quickly, it makes sense to be prepared for the worst. As flu season ends in the Northern Hemisphere, it will kick off in the Southern Hemisphere, and scientists will watch for changes in the swine flu virus. Even if the flu runs its course in the U.S. in the coming weeks and months, it may return in the fall in a different form. It’s likely that a vaccine will be ready then, but it’s hard to know how effective it will be, and who will be able to get it. Priority will likely be given to those most at risk of severe disease.
In case things do take an unexpected turn for the worst, consider getting ready now by building an emergency preparedness kit. Just as Californians prepare for earthquakes, Midwesterners for tornadoes and the East and Gulf Coasts prepare for hurricanes, you should keep a supply of food, water and other key supplies, so that you can wait out a severe outbreak in your community.
—Kevin McCarthy, associate editor
For more information on emergency preparedness, see our planning checklist.
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