Swine flu reaches 2nd peak

Dec 3, 2009 2:09 PM

Two waves down, is a third coming? Visits to doctors’ offices for flu-like illness have declined for the fourth week in a row, and only 32 states are now reporting widespread activity—down from 43 last week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The New York Times interprets these numbers as a confirmation that swine flu has passed it’s second peak—the first being the outbreak last spring, before the summer’s decline.

But, as we reported last week, even at a declining rate, this year’s flu has already outpaced a typical flu year, which generally doesn’t get going until December and can last until May. "Even when a peak has occurred," says Anne Schuchat, M.D., director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, "half of the people who are going to become ill haven't gotten ill yet." And it’s possible there will be another wave of flu this season.

The last flu pandemic in 1957-58 had a decline followed by another wave, CDC director, Thomas Frieden M.D. said Tuesday. "More than 50 years ago, there was a large surge in cases at the beginning of the school year, then a waning of cases, and then…there was a big increase in the number of people who were severely ill or who died," said Frieden.

People seeking H1N1 vaccine may now face less frustration. "We're going from a time where there was lots of disease and not enough vaccines to a time where disease is gradually decreasing and we're having a steady increase in the amount of vaccine available," said Frieden. "That leaves a window of opportunity for people to be protected by getting the vaccine."

After many weeks of relative unavailability of the vaccine, there are now close to 70 million doses available for order. And a fifth manufacturer recently earned approval adding to the increasing supply. If you haven’t had a chance to get your vaccine, and you fit in a priority or high-risk group, now may be the time to start trying again. Flu is still widespread, even if the number of cases is declining. And for those who aren’t in the recommended group, vaccine supplies may get to the point where all who want a vaccine can get it. But we're probably not there yet in most places.

—Kevin McCarthy, associate editor

Follow our swine flu coverage and recommendations, and watch our video for more on what you might not know about hand washing.