Retail spending was lackluster over the past five months, yet consumers increased their purchases markedly in November, according to the most recent Consumer Reports Index, a composite of five indices measuring consumer behavior, attitudes, and consumption patterns.
The Retail Index, a component that measured purchases made in November, rose 24 percent, no doubt due to the start of the holiday shopping season. The items people were most likely to put in their shopping carts included personal electronics, major electronics, and small appliances. And here’s more good news for retailers: The outlook for planned purchases for December is up 36 percent from the previous month.
However, consumer sentiment and our Trouble Tracker Index, which looks at the financial difficulties people have experienced in the past 30 days, are both flat.
Leading the list of troubles, which were felt the most by people in the Northeast: 15.7 percent said they were unable to pay a medical bill or buy needed medications; 13.4 percent were smacked with higher interest rates, penalty fees, or other nasty surprises courtesy of their credit card companies; and 9.4 percent had missed a payment on a major bill (not including their mortgage).
In addition, the Employment Index remains unchanged from the previous month, reflecting a job market that is still shedding workers. In the past 30 days, 7.4 percent reported losing their jobs, versus 5.2 percent who found a new one. And our Stress Index is up slightly, which may be largely due to the approaching holidays.
Yet despite the fact that on average consumers have not experienced much improvement in their financial lives in the past six months and they’re shouldering more stress, they’ve ratcheted up their holiday spending. If that results in more post-holiday debt, it may take some consumers a while to recover. In a separate poll, Consumer Reports National Research Center, which also created the Index, found that 13.5 million Americans still have ’08 holiday debts. So we could see a sharp decline in consumer spending early next year.
The Consumer Reports Index, conducted by the Consumer Reports National Research Center, is a monthly telephone and cell phone poll of a nationally representative sample of American adults. A total of 1,264 interviews were completed (1,014 households, 250 cell phone) among adults aged 18 and older. Interviewing took place between December 3 and December 6, 2009. The margin of error is +/- 2.8% points at a 95% confidence level.—Mandy Walker












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